JUDGE ROB | Cutting through the network spin as SEVEN attacks NINE’s ratings claims

Oh dear, it’s getting nasty with the release of a cranky statement from SEVEN… but JUDGE ROB is here to pass his verdict.

I miss the days of the big biff between the networks, especially NINE and SEVEN. I needn’t have worried though because it looks like the biff is back with SEVEN determined to claim the Number 1 title.

Take a look at this statement released by team Red this weekend with the subject line Nine’s misleading statements:

Seven West Media Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, James Warburton, said: “Seven is disappointed to read a number of false and misleading statements by Nine in its 2022 survey year ratings report.

“Seven is the #1 network nationally, #1 in metropolitan markets, #1 in regional markets, #1 in total TV and #1 in total TV advertising revenue.

“Nine can rightfully lay claim to winning the demographics in metropolitan markets, but it is not the most-watched or the #1 network. Those positions were won by Seven.

“While we all enjoy healthy competition in a hard-fought ratings race, Nine’s claims are desperate, misleading and wrong.”

Seven took issue with claims from Nine in interviews like the one I did with Programmer Hamish Turner. You can listen to that in the player below.

At this time of year it’s always difficult cutting through the network spin, so let’s go back to the initial claims made by SEVEN earlier in the week.

The Seven Network has finished the official 2022 ratings survey year as the undisputed #1 total TV network across Australia, ranking #1 nationally and across the capital cities. 

Seven is the most-watched network in total people and 16 to 39s nationally in both the 2022 OzTAM television ratings survey year and in the 2022 calendar year to-date. In 25 to 54s, Seven is just 0.2 share points, or 2,000 viewers, away from being #1 nationally.

In the capital cities, the Seven Network is #1 in total people in the survey year and has grown its audience shares in total people, 25 to 54s and 16 to 39s during 2022.

By the end of this week, Seven will have won 29 survey weeks nationally, demonstrating the network’s consistent leadership across the year. In the capital cities, Seven is on track to win 21 of the 40 survey weeks.  

Seven also dominates all key audience demographics in regional markets, ranking #1 in total people, 25 to 54s and 16 to 39s.

Seven’s success on television has been matched by the continued strong performance of 7plus, which has streamed 10.6 billion minutes and increased its audience 16% year-on-year in BVOD and 41% in live streaming.

Seven in 2022:

·         #1 in prime time in total people nationally

·         #1 in prime time in total people across the capital cities

·         #1 in prime time nationally in 16 to 39s

·         #1 in regional markets in total people, 25 to 54s and 16 to 39s

·         #1 multichannel in total people – 7two

·         #1 multichannel in 25 to 54s and 16 to 39s – 7mate

·         #1 multichannel group – 7mate, 7two, 7flix

2022 survey year

National commercial shares (%):

Capital city commercial shares (%):

Regional commercial shares (%):

Weeks won, total people:

2022 calendar year

National commercial shares (%):

So there you have it.

Except, the Blue team had a different tale to tell…

The 9Network is Australia’s No.1 network, with Nine’s clear strategy of creating and distributing Australia’s most watched content year round. The end of the 2022 ratings survey year marks the fourth consecutive year the 9Network has made a clean sweep of all key demos. 9Now is the clear number 1 commercial BVOD platform. 

• No.1 network with all key demographics 25-54, 16-39, GS + Child across calendar year.
• No.1 network with Total People across calendar year.
• No.1 primary channel with all key demographics and Total People – across both calendar year and ratings survey period.
• No.1 network and No. 1 primary channel with all key demographics and Total People – across both calendar year and ratings survey period (excluding Commonwealth Games).
• No.1 commercial free-to-air BVOD platform – 9Now – with all key demographics and Total People.
• No.1 highest rating program of the year. The Australian Open Women’s Final – Presentation recorded a Total TV audience of 4.1 million. 
• No.1 highest rating non-sports program of the year. The Block – Winner Announced with a Total TV audience of 2.664 million.
• Channel 9 has 16 of the Top 20 programs of 2022 with Total People and 17 of the Top 20 programs with People 25-54 and 16-39, including all five of the Top 5.
• In 2022, 9Now has recorded 15.7 billion Live + VOD minutes – a year-on-year increase of 19%.
• Live streaming on 9Now has driven the huge increase with 7.9 billion live minutes streamed in 2022 to date – a year-on-year increase of 50%.

PLEASE RISE FOR JUDGE ROB’S VERDICT:

Both networks have the right to claim being #1, depending on how you slice it.

Seven is relying on a national approach (metro + regional) while Nine is sticking to the traditional 5 cap city approach. Both are now breaking up claims into calendar year and the 40-week survey period, which gives you an extra set of numbers.

Let’s look closely at Seven’s main complaint and this comment by CEO James Warburton:

“Seven is the #1 network nationally, #1 in metropolitan markets, #1 in regional markets, #1 in total TV and #1 in total TV advertising revenue.

In determining my verdict I have taken into consideration this statement by OzTam regarding the combining of metro and regional figures:

OzTAM and Regional TAM are separate commercial services.

The elemental data for OzTAM and Regional TAM are to be processed separately to derive audience estimates.

They may not be processed together.

As such, until all parties agree, all claims about ratings success must be based on the data supplied by OzTam, which only covers the 5 metropolitan capital cities.

The question must now be narrowed down to whether success can be claimed on Calendar Year or Survey Period.

There does not seem to be a unilateral approach to this, although I do note that all commercial networks are programming for a full 52 weeks, rather than the 40-week survey period.

Having said that, all networks use both periods depending on which looks better for their narrative.

According to the latest data provided to me on Sunday 27 November, Seven leads Nine in the SURVEY year in TOTAL PEOPLE 39.2% to 38.7% in metro markets.

In CALENDAR YEAR TO DATE (noting the calendar year has not finished yet), Nine leads in TOTAL PEOPLE 39.1% 38.7% in those same markets.

As such, Seven can rightfully claim to be #1 in TOTAL people for the SURVEY YEAR.

Nine (at this stage) can rightfully claim to be #1 in TOTAL PEOPLE for the CALENDAR YEAR. It is unlikely Nine will lose the race in the remaining month of 2022.

There is no disputing, however, that Nine is #1 in its preferred advertising demo of 25-54, no matter how you look at it. And that is the demo both networks target over-and-above TOTAL PEOPLE.

While Seven might not like the claim by Nine regarding TOTAL PEOPLE, it is factually correct based on CALENDAR YEAR 5 cap cities as reported by OzTAM.

But a word of warning to Nine: you can’t have it both ways. If you want to claim ratings success based on a metro figure, it is disingenuous to then use the NATIONAL figure for individual programs.

Until the network agrees to a national approach then it should stand by its decision and only quote metro figures at all times.