When Being Number One Still Gets You Sacked | MEDIA McKNIGHT

Executives insist they know better than the audience — but the numbers tell a very different story.

In this edition of Media McKnight:

• The shock axing of Ash Bradnam after 21 years in Brisbane breakfast radio.
• A domino of moves at NOVA and 4BC that will shake up the market.
• The ratings war between The Seven Network and Nine Network — who really won 2025?
• Why tech giants might be on the hook for up to $600 M a year to Aussie publishers.

Watch this editiokn of Media McKnight in the video player below:

BRISBANE RADIO – WTF

Something strange is happening in Brisbane radio — and honestly, you’ll need a Bex and a good lie-down, because things have gone completely troppo in the Sunshine State.

To start: top-rating host Ash Bradnam has been axed from the NOVA breakfast show he has co-hosted for 21 years.

“Today is my last show” Ash told listeners on Friday.

*You can hear Ash’s remarks in the video player above

“This is not my choice at all. But after 20 years and winning – what I was told the other week – was my 100th survey with this show, I was consistently told throughout the year that I’d be continuing. But 45 minutes after that milestone win, management told me that, yeah, it’s over.”

“I don’t know who’s replacing me, but I know what they’re inheriting, and that is a dominant number one breakfast show. And I wish them well in maintaining that.”

Mister Brisbane reports that Nick “Ducko” Allen-Ducat from Hit Newcastle will be stepping into the role.
The Courier Mail has echoed the same rumour — without attribution to Mister Brisbane Brett Debritz, who appears to have been first to report it.

And then there’s another twist at NOVA: it looks like Nikki Osborne is set to leave the breakfast show — to be replaced by the person she replaced, Susie O’Neil.

Osborne’s departure appears to be driven by logistics more than politics: she lives on the Sunshine Coast, and has been doing most shows from her home studio.

Why change something that’s working?

I’ve never understood the obsession some executives have with replacing a winning formula. They always think they know better than the audience.

2DAY FM thought they could survive without Kyle & Jackie O. They convinced themselves their time was up — and every replacement show has crashed and burned.

And Brisbane is now learning that same lesson.

How many times must history repeat itself?

When the now-axed Robin Bailey returned to 97.3FM, she replaced Brisbane’s #1 breakfast show — Bianca, Mike, and Bob.
Management blindsided the team, despite their dominant #1 position.

Bianca, Mike and Bob had been delivering an 11.2% share.

By comparison, Robin & Kip with Corey Oates delivered the same share in Survey 7 this year — but it put them in fourth place.

Enter: Luke Bradnam

Ash’s twin brother Luke Bradnam, filling in on 4BC breakfast, made his feelings very clear.

“Before I get out of here, on my brother’s radio show on Nova, he’s just made an announcement that he is leaving after 21 years of being on Nova” he told listeners of the low-ratings talkback station.

“He was dragged into a meeting with the Nova execs about six weeks ago, seven weeks ago after he had yet again won the ratings in breakfast and told that he won’t be returning for 2026 as they want to go in a different direction”.

“The radio ratings came out again on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. He’d increased his lead. Well, I want to wish the Nova execs all the very best in going in a different direction. Why you’d want to go in a different direction when your number one is beyond me, but good luck. I hope you achieve it.”

It’s hard to disagree.

Luke then went on to proclaim what a great radio station 4BC is — though there are many former presenters who may not feel quite as charitable.

Bill McDonald was the station’s highest-rating performer — and was sacked for his efforts.

The station has been through more presenter changes than hot dinners, desperately trying to work out what resonates in Brisbane.

No presenting future for Olympia Kwitowski

One person not being considered for future roles is Olympia Kwitowski.

She was dumped from her top-rating weekend breakfast show and replaced by Paul Burt — whose show has been, frankly, a disaster in the ratings.

Management has apparently told her there is “no place” for her on air.

In a post on Brett Debritz’s Facebook page announcing Carla Bignasca as the new 4BC Afternoons host, a punter asked why Olympia hadn’t been given the gig.

Her response was damning:

“I did express to management several weeks ago I would like to fill in over the summer etc. I was told that I’m not a “Household name” like other presenters that had been rostered to fill in. And I was subsequently told- why would we put you on when there are male presenters who have had 20 years broadcasting experience?”

Huh? Well, that’s one way to inspire the troops.

Aside from a couple of names like Sofie Formica and Gary Hardgrave, 4BC isn’t exactly the home of big Brisbane names, let alone national names.

From what I’ve seen of the fill-in line-up you’d be lucky to identify any of them in a police line-up.

“Having good ratings, unrelenting passion and a solid work ethic clearly gets you nowhere!” Olympic finished.

She’s not wrong.

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BIG KIIS GOODBYE

What a month it’s been for now-former ARN Content Director Lauren Joyce.

Just weeks ago she was sitting beside CEO Michael Stephenson announcing sweeping lineup changes across KIIS and GOLD.

Now? She’s out of the job — a role many believed she was never truly qualified for.

Several of the announcements made at the ARN Upfronts were, by multiple accounts, last-minute decisions — including axing the Brisbane and Adelaide breakfast shows.

Joyce then found herself under intense pressure during media interviews defending ARN’s strategy.

During a tense appearance on the Game Changers podcast, host Craig Bruce took her head-on.

“My concern as a programmer would be ratings” he declared.

“So Robin Bailey walks out the door, you’re gonna lose four share points at the start of next year because Craig Low has zero brand recognition in Brisbane and there’s no audience that will pick up that slack. So Robin’s audience is gonna go to either Nova or B105 – one or the other”.

“You’re gonna get smashed in the first 12 months, no question”.

Joyce pushed back, saying ARN had drawn a “line in the sand”.

Later in the interview Joyce made what many viewed as a fatal mistake when she went back to the discussion about ratings.

“I mean, when we’re thinking about what success looks like for our business, we’re not just looking at GFK ratings. So, understand that your podcast is very focused on radio, but we are looking at total audience. And so when we look at the audience across all of our audio formats plus social plus video plus live experience, it’s well beyond what is measured within GFK”.

According to The Daily Mail, that line sparked alarm internally.

“We live and die by GfK surveys. How can they say that? Shows are cancelled over ratings. People lose their jobs over ratings,’ a source told the outlet.

As Mumbrella put it, Joyce was “one of Australia’s most senior – and inexperienced – radio programmers”.

And where does this leave Kyle & Jackie O’s national expansion?
NOVA Brisbane seems convinced they’re coming in 2026.

Ash said as much in his farewell:

“They said that Kyle and Jackie are coming into the Brisbane market next year and they’re going to take the show in a different direction and that I wouldn’t be a part of it”.

So NOVA is preparing for them — meaning it is highly likely to happen.

Which then raises a different question: Where does this leave newly announced host Craig Low?

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BIG BROTHER: PRODUCTION INSIDER OR INTERNET FANTASIST?

A now-deleted Reddit post has caused chaos in the fan community after the user u/bbau-prodanon claimed to be a Big Brother production insider.

The post described the season as:

“There’s a lot of tension behind the scenes. The metrics are amazing, but network hates the production quality, production is working with no budget, the crew is lean and lacks experience. We’re making what changes we can but we’re working with no support and no resources. We know that the live segments are a big issue but the crew we have can’t solve that,”

“A certain person in charge of editorial direction is ramming the Love Island format down your throats because that’s their personal taste level (and experience). Everybody else hates it. There have been heated conversations about it. It is not Big Brother. And it’s not even authentic. Holly has zero interest in Colin, she’s just being encouraged to play it up”.

PR swiftly dismissed the claims as “complete fiction”.

But Media McKnight can confirm producers believe one of their own did indeed write the post.

While details about intruders were off the mark, specific details about editorial direction and lack of resources have been ongoing issues.

The show is being made on the smell of an oily rag — but ironically is resonating with viewers:

• 5.5 million season reach
• 881,000 average Total TV audience — a 125% lift on 2023
• 449 million streaming minutes

The show is a success.

But don’t buy the PR spin — tension behind the scenes is genuine.

Let’s hope 2026 brings more stability… and maybe finally a roof.

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LUCKY SEVEN — OR IS NINE STILL THE ONE?

Channel Seven has laid claim to the ratings crown for 2025.

But, so has Channel 9.

Yes, it’s complicated, but let’s break it down.

Nine’s end of year press release began like this:

“The 9Network has dominated the metro market in 2025 year-to-date, securing the No. 1 position across all key demographics and Total People”.

“This success extends nationally, where the 9Network (incorporating both owned and affiliated stations) stands as the No. 1 network across the country, leading all key demographics”.

Seven countered by saying:

“The Seven Network is Australia’s most watched television network for the 2025 ratings survey year, with 7plus cementing its position as the fastest growing BVOD platform.

“For the official OzTAM ratings survey year, which ran from 9 February to 29 November, Seven grew its average audience (6.00am to midnight) by 1.6%, with 7plus leading the charge with 42.3% year-on-year growth.  

“Seven was the most watched network in 24 of the 40 rating survey weeks (excluding the two-week Easter period), and was #1 nationally in total TV, with a 41.6% commercial share in all people between 6.00am and midnight and a 40.6% share from 6.00pm to midnight”.

Interestingly, while news ratings are counted by weeks (see below), network wins are counted by average audiences and shares.

Nine is basing their win of 43.3% over Seven’s 41.1% and 10’s 16.5% share on calendar weeks (which is a bit weird considering the year isn’t over).

This is a furphy.

Ratings are based on the 40 official survey weeks.

And you can also forget any guff Seven claims about 6.00am – midnight figures. Official ratings are the 40 survey weeks 6PM to Midnight.

While there’s an argument the ABC and SBS should be included in the overall figures, we have to play the hand we’re dealt and Nine and Seven only make commercial shares available.

So, here’s the verdict.

SEVEN has won the year with a 40.6% commercial share, just ahead of Nine on 40.2%. 10 was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind on an embarrassing 19.2%.

There’s no doubt both Nine and Seven have had a strong year and the competition between the two is very healthy.

The big question is whether 10 – with a loss of almost half-a-billion-dollars over the past two years can find a way forward.

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NEWS WARS — CUTTING THROUGH THE SPIN

And speaking of ratings – the battle between Seven News and Nine News has roared back to life, with both networks loudly claiming victory for 2025.

But as is often the case in television, the truth is far more complicated than the press releases.

Seven came out swinging first, issuing a statement declaring itself “Australia’s Number One News.” That claim is technically correct – the network did win the 2025 national Total TV average audience. But that headline doesn’t tell the full story.

Nine News, not wanting to surrender the field, quickly clapped back with its own carefully framed claim: it remains the #1 bulletin on the east coast.

And that is also true… depending on how you measure it.

What we’re seeing here isn’t dishonesty – it’s TV networks doing what they always do: presenting the numbers in the most flattering way possible.

Seven’s Claim: National #1 – But With Caveats

Seven’s win sits in the national Total TV measurement, which includes metropolitan markets, regional markets, BVOD, and all screens. Total TV is considered the most comprehensive audience metric we have today.

But Seven’s lead exists because of its dominance in regional Australia — a legacy advantage created by its strong regional affiliation network.

This boosts Seven’s national numbers significantly, even in years when metropolitan performance is mixed.

When it comes to metro-only 6pm bulletins — the prestige battleground — the picture becomes far more nuanced.

Nine’s Claim: East Coast #1 — And Also True

Nine News continues to control Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane — the three largest advertising markets in the country.

When Nine says it’s “the number one news service on the east coast,” that is a fair and accurate representation of the metro performance.

But Nine’s claim glosses over the fact that nationally, including regionals, Seven still comes out on top.

It’s a reminder that numbers can be technically correct while still missing context.

The Bigger Picture: This Isn’t About Ratings — It’s About Perception

This PR arm-wrestle isn’t really about who has the biggest audience — it’s about which network can shape the narrative.

In the modern media landscape, perception is almost as important as the numbers themselves.

If advertisers think a network is winning, that can be as valuable as actually winning.

Both networks know this.

Both networks tailor messaging to highlight the pieces of data that make them look strongest.

This is why Seven emphasises national reach.

This is why Nine emphasises the metro east coast markets.

Both are right.

Both are selective.

The Verdict

The 6pm news service is a local product, not a national bulletin. Using national figures to justify a claim that 7NEWS Sydney is the #1 news is disingenuous.

News ratings should only ever be calculated on a state level. Nine has won Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, while Seven can claim Adelaide and Perth.

National figures are absolutely irrelevant.

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BIG TECH COULD BE FORCED TO PAY AUSTRALIAN MEDIA UP TO $600 MILLION A YEAR

The Albanese Government has outlined a major overhaul of how tech giants contribute to the Australian news ecosystem.

Under the proposed News Bargaining Incentive, tech platforms who refuse to negotiate deals could face a levy close to $1 billion a year.

Who’s impacted?

According to the AFR, any company earning over $250 million in Australian revenue: Google, Meta, TikTok, Apple, Microsoft.

How it works

Platforms must either:

• Strike commercial deals with publishers, or
• Pay a 2.25% non-deductible levy on Australian revenue

Deals would be deductible — at around 1.5% of revenue.

Estimated Australian revenue

• Google/Alphabet: approx. $10.2b
• Meta: approx. $8.1b
• Apple: $12.4b
• Microsoft: $9.6b
• TikTok: $680m

And we all know they pay very little tax in return.

But here’s what doesn’t add up

Why should tech companies pay to promote news brands?

Australian media companies use Facebook and social platforms to pull users off those platforms and onto their own.

Now the government wants tech platforms to pay for that privilege?

One digital news insider told me their outlet would be “stuffed” without Facebook.
They rely on Facebook traffic — their audience doesn’t visit them directly.

Yes, big tech should pay more tax in Australia.

But this feels like a subsidy for legacy media — not a modern policy solution.