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Who Will Win Monday Night’s Epic TV Ratings Battle?

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Finally, Australia’s Free-To-Air TV Industry is ready to return from its slumber and bombard us with some fresh new content!

This Monday night is set to be one of the most competitive and fascinating ratings battles served up in years, and everyone is asking the question, “Who Will Win?”

Seven has a massive amount riding on the success of Holey Moley. The production is one of the most ambitious and expensive ever undertaken in this country. The network initially attempted to film in the US, however those plans were scuttled after just one week due to COVID, with Seven then committing to building a new course in Australia.

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The one thing bigger than Holey Moley has been the advertising campaign for Holey Moley! Billboards, Bus Shelters, Newspapers and Radio Stations have all been filled promos for this show to the point where if you haven’t heard about it, you must be dead!

Ines Basic (image - Nine)
Ines Basic (image – Nine)

A delay to the Tennis has caused Nine to rejig its plans for 2021. Two Married At First Sight Reunion specials have been commissioned, and the network has made a last-minute decision to move the second episode against Holey Moley in an attempt to ruin Seven’s launch night spectacular.

MAFS The Reunion is bound to be filled with drama and emotions as our heavily intoxicated, scorned brides desperately attempt to rekindle 15 minutes of fame and gain a few more Instagram followers. Although with so much plastic surgery and lip filler on display, it’s often hard to tell what any of them are actually feeling….

Even if you have only watched five minutes of I’m A Celebrity, you would be well aware The Amazing Race Australia is also set to launch with a new season on Monday night. 10 has had the promos running on a high level of rotation, but is anyone interested in what they are selling?

Beau Ryan hosts THE AMAZING RACE AUSTRALIA (image – 10)

COVID-19 has prevented Channel 10 from launching its year with a fresh season of Australian Survivor like it did so successfully last year, and it’s hard to see this scaled back, domestic version of The Amazing Race delivering the goods.

Finally, If reality TV is not your thing, Monday night will also see the return of the ABC’s flagship current affairs program Four Corners. And as an added bonus, the highly respected Sarah Ferguson is returning to show to present a report on the final days of the Trump presidency.

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Ferguson has been much missed from Australian TV over the past 12 months, and this is bound to something worth tuning in for.

So who will win this epic Monday night battle?

The TV Blackbox team has had a crack at guessing what the numbers might be, but more importantly we want to hear from you. Please leave your guesses below in the comment section and remember we are predicting 5-City Metro number only (not national).

Kevin Perry

  • Holey Moley Australia (premiere) – 1.3 million
  • MAFS Reunion (episode 2) – 950k
  • Four Corners (season return) – 620k
  • The Amazing Race Australia (premiere) – 590k

Holey Moley! – With this much promotion it cannot fail on night one, although with 90 minute episodes im not sure how many viewers will keep coming back!

MAFS Reunion – Has Australia finally tired of this reality trainwreck?

The Amazing Race – 10 have backed the wrong horse here and should have made the bigger financial commitment bring production of Australian Survivor back home.

Four Corners – Quality Australian journalism will deliver a solid result again for ABC.


Robert McKnight

  • MAFS Reunion (episode 2) – 900k
  • Holey Moley Australia (premiere) – 650k
  • Four Corners (season return) – 750k
  • The Amazing Race Australia (premiere) – 550k

MAFS Reunion – While the main series usually rates a lot stronger, it will be interesting to see how the reunion specials go. No doubt there will be lots of drama!

Holey Moley! – There will be a lot of interest in this fun family show and it’s really good but goes too long. Initial interest will sway as kids start going to bed before it finishes.

The Amazing Race – The Australia only twist will work but it’s up against some very strong competition and this is the problem 10 will face this year. IAC had a great run over summer but it’s no game on for all the networks.

Four Corners – A Monday night favourite, expect this show to continue to do well for the ABC on Monday nights.


Steve Molk

  • MAFS Reunion (episode 2) – 1.05million
  • Holey Moley Australia (premiere) – 910k
  • Four Corners (season return) – 700k
  • The Amazing Race Australia (premiere) – 620k

Holey Moley! – There will be lots of rubber-neckers after lots of promotion, which will help boost it. I can’t see it maintaining this figure as each episode is just too long.

MAFS Reunion – Unless there’s major drama inferred in the promos during Sunday night this special with the experts will be down on the reunion dinner. I expect it will just crack the million & yet will be enough to win.

The Amazing Race – This looks really great, and while it will rate respectably I can’t see it landing in the race (unless Holey Moley arrives as a ratings dud, which is unlikely).

Four Corners – This is the one I’m most hotly anticipating, and I suspect I’m in the minority – we’re all just US/Trump politicked out. I also suspect the substance won’t match the sales pitch.

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Know more about this or another Australian media story?

Contact the team anonymously at TV Blackbox

Kevin Perry
Kevin Perryhttps://tvblackbox.com.au/author-kevin-perry/
Senior Editor and Co-Owner of the TV Blackbox website, Kevin Perry is an experienced media commentator focused on TV Production, Consumer Tech, SVOD & Sports Broadcasting. Media enquiries please Call or Text 0428-275-111
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